Climate Change

Climate change is projected to intensify economic damages worldwide, while international trade can partially buffer these impacts by reallocating goods across regions. Yet this adaptive role depends on the reliability of global trade networks. Maritime chokepoints are particularly exposed: localized shocks can propagate through shipping networks, generating welfare losses far beyond the directly affected region. This paper studies this mechanism using the Panama Canal, whose lock system relies on a freshwater reservoir (Gatun Lake). The analysis proceeds through three margins: Canal operations, trade flows, and network propagation. On the operational margin, Canal throughput drops sharply once Gatun Lake falls below 81 feet. Monthly oceangoing transits decline by approximately 13%, while revenue per transit rises approximately 4%, as the Canal Authority rations capacity toward higher-value vessels. On the trade margin, I construct a scarcity index and decompose it into seasonal, trend, and unexpected components. The seasonal component shows no detectable trade effect, while the trend component is entangled with Pacific climate cycles. An unexpected one-foot deterioration in hydrological conditions reduces trade on Canal-exposed corridors by approximately 1%, while routes bypassing the Canal experience trade expansion, consistent with rerouting toward alternative corridors.To quantify propagation, I develop a structural maritime network model with endogenous routing and spillovers. A one-foot decline raises transport costs on Canal links by approximately 0.1%. General-equilibrium effects amplify the decline in trade to 6% across Canal-exposed pairs. Welfare losses are uneven: East and Gulf Coast states bear losses of 1–3%, while the Pacific Coast registers modest gains.

We decompose state-level U.S. agricultural greenhouse gas emissions growth into output growth, input emission intensity, and total factor productivity (TFP). Combining EPA emissions data with USDA productivity accounts over 1990–2015, we find that TFP growth historically slowed emissions but has recently weakened. Declining input emission intensity, concentrated in the Southeast, has become the dominant mitigating factor. Further decomposition suggests that land productivity gains are more closely linked to emission reductions than labor productivity gains.

Global population growth has increased food demand, particularly in emerging economies such as Latin America. There, the subsequent increase in livestock production has been a main driver of greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation. Silvopasture emerges as a promising solution for both economic and environmental sustainability. However, to be successful, cattle ranchers need to implement (set-up) and afterwards adopt (continued use after implementation) silvopasture. Although resources have been invested in the implementation of silvopastoral systems in Colombia, adoption rates remain variable. In this study, we aim to understand the barriers to adoption of silvopasture in Colombia by surveying 182 ranchers who received technical assistance and payment for ecosystem services to implement silvopasture in Colombia. We used survey results and precipitation and temperature data to identify socioeconomic and environmental variables that could explain the varying levels of adoption among ranchers. Our results indicate that high precipitation and temperature during the dry season have a negative impact on adoption. Ranchers who have experienced food insecurity are more likely to adopt while ranchers with larger farms, tractors, and water pumps, all indicators of good economic status, are less likely to adopt silvopastoral applications. Collectively, our data suggests that ranchers facing economic and environmental challenges are more likely to adopt silvopastoral technologies. This highlights the need for future implementation programs to focus on socially and environmentally vulnerable farmers, who stand to benefit the most and are more likely to maintain these practices long-term.